OPEC caught to its forecast for comparatively sturdy development in world oil demand in 2024 and 2025 on February 13, and raised its financial development forecasts for each years saying there was additional upside potential.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a month-to-month report, stated world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts had been unchanged from final month.
An additional enhance to financial development may give further tailwind to grease demand. OPEC’s 2024 demand development forecast is already larger than that of the International Energy Agency, though the broader OPEC+ alliance continues to be reducing output to assist the market.
OPEC stated a “positive trend” for financial development was anticipated to increase into the primary half of 2024 and raised its financial development forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 proportion factors.
“Global economic growth remains robust,” OPEC stated within the report. “Further upside potential could materialise in all major OECD and non-OECD economies.”
Oil costs have discovered assist in 2024 from battle in West Asia and provide outages, though issues about continued excessive rates of interest have weighed. Brent crude on Feb. 13 was buying and selling round $82 a barrel, up 0.5%
OPEC, IEA conflict over demand outlook
For this yr, OPEC’s expectation of oil demand development is rather more than the growth of 1.24 million bpd to date forecast by the IEA. The IEA, which represents industrialised nations, is scheduled to replace its forecasts on Feb. 15.
OPEC and the IEA have clashed in recent times over points equivalent to long-term demand and the necessity for funding in new provide. The IEA sees oil demand peaking by 2030 because the world shifts to cleaner vitality, a view OPEC dismisses.
Earlier on Feb. 13, OPEC’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais informed Reuters he believed OPEC’s long-term demand outlook, which seems to be to 2045 and sees no peak in demand, is strong. OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance have applied a collection of output cuts since late 2022 to assist the market. A brand new lower for the primary quarter took impact final month.
The OPEC report additionally stated that OPEC oil manufacturing fell by 350,000 bpd in January as a brand new spherical of voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ alliance for the primary quarter took impact.